TROPICAL UPDATE 2 PM TUESDAY 8-12-2025 Tropical Storm Erin has been kept in check since forming yesterday, thanks to a surge of dry, dusty Saharan air. If it can shake off that dust, conditions ahead appear favorable for strengthening. Erin could become the season’s first hurricane later this week, and possibly a major hurricane north of Puerto Rico this weekend—though that will depend on how well it overcomes the lingering dry air. My outlook on Erin’s track hasn’t changed. A strong high-pressure system to the north will steer the storm west through Friday. Over the weekend, the jet stream is expected to dip south along the East Coast, breaking down that ridge and allowing Erin to turn north. While most global models and their ensembles keep Erin well offshore, it’s still too soon to be certain. As I mentioned yesterday, models are guidance, not gospel truth. Small errors sampling today’s atmospheric setup can grow into big forecast changes down the line. The likelihood of the track shifting enough to bring a hurricane close to our coast is very low, but not zero. At this point, I feel good about Erin passing welll offshorebut I'm not ready to give the all-clear with a week still to go before Erin’s closest pass. Even if the storm stays well offshore, large swells will likely create dangerous rip currents and pounding surf along the East Coast for much of next week. The ocean will be powerful so use caution, but there’s no need to change or cancel any plans right now.
