Afternoon model run for Tropical Storm Erin still showing a re-curve early next week- but I do have to at least mention that while I’ll liking the consistency here- I am at least watching how ahead or behind guidance it is intensifying to a hurricane. Weaker goes west is my worry here- and as long as this system remains weak and disorganized, it runs the risk of running more west than expected. This is shown in the official NHC forecast, running more W than the model guidance envelope. Something to watch closely the next few days…
